Planning Indian Festive Ecommerce Campaigns: 2026 Sale Dates and Ad Costs
Shreya Singh, Paid Media Analyst12 min read
Indian brands paid 50% more for Meta impressions from Navratri to Diwali 2025 than in August 2025, and 80% more in Diwali week. Meta clicks cost 35% more and Google Shopping clicks 29% more. Conversion rose 20% and order values 18%, while CAC rose 21%, less than click costs. Costs started rising 24.5 days before Diwali and were 2.5% below August two weeks after it. In 2026, Navratri starts on 11 October and Diwali falls on 8 November. Flipkart's Big Billion Days opens on 9 October, while Amazon, Myntra and Meesho hadn't published dates by 19 September 2026.
How much did festive ad costs rise in 2025?#
Meta impressions cost 50% more from Navratri to Diwali 2025 than in August 2025, and clicks cost 29–35% more. Shoppers also converted better, so customer acquisition cost (CAC) rose less than ad prices: 21%. They also spent 18% more per order.
These are averages across Indian ad accounts and stores from ProfitBox360 research, 2025 (client data and shopper surveys). The 2025 festive window ran from Navratri on 22 September to Diwali on 20 October.
| Measure | Change vs August 2025 | What it means per ₹1,00,000 |
|---|---|---|
| Meta CPM (cost per 1,000 impressions), Navratri to Diwali | +50% | Impressions that cost ₹1,00,000 in August cost ₹1,50,000 |
| Meta CPM, Diwali week | +80% | The same impressions cost ₹1,80,000 |
| Meta CPM, two weeks after Diwali | −2.5% | The same impressions cost ₹97,500 |
| Meta CPC (cost per click) | +35% | Clicks that cost ₹1,00,000 cost ₹1,35,000 |
| Google Shopping CPC | +29% | Clicks that cost ₹1,00,000 cost ₹1,29,000 |
| Store conversion rate | +20% | Traffic that brought ₹1,00,000 of orders brought ₹1,20,000 at August order values |
| Average order value | +18% | Orders worth ₹1,00,000 in August were worth ₹1,18,000 |
| CAC | +21% | New customers who cost ₹1,00,000 to win cost ₹1,21,000 |
| Brands' monthly ad spend | +80% | A ₹1,00,000 August budget became ₹1,80,000 |
Two patterns matter for planning.
- Impressions rose in price more than clicks did. CPM rose 50% but Meta CPC only 35%, so festive shoppers clicked on ads more often.
- Brands raised spend faster than prices rose. An 80% bigger budget at 50% higher CPMs buys more reach, but far less than 80% more.
Why did CAC rise less than click costs?#
More visitors bought: a 20% higher conversion rate absorbed much of the 35% rise in Meta click prices. CAC still rose more than the cost of each order, though. The most likely reason is that fewer festive orders came from new customers.
Cost per order = CPC ÷ conversion rate
1.35 ÷ 1.20 = 1.125, so each order from paid clicks cost 12.5% more than in August. Orders that cost ₹1,00,000 to win in August cost ₹1,12,500.
CAC = ad spend ÷ new customers
CAC rose 21%, not 12.5%. So each order brought fewer new customers: 1.125 ÷ 1.21 = 0.93. New customers' share of orders was about 7% smaller than in August. Google Shopping's 29% click rise points the same way.
Illustrative example: in August, 70 of every 100 orders came from new customers. With a share 7% smaller, about 65 of every 100 festive orders did (70 × 0.93 = 65).
This is a reading of averages, not a measured split. Returning customers shop for gifts and sales too, and your ads reach them. Split your festive orders into new and returning customers, and judge festive CAC on new customers only.
What does the festive rise do to your budget?#
Your budget buys fewer new customers per rupee. In the 2025 festive season each new customer cost 21% more, while brands spent 80% more a month. Bigger first orders covered most, but not all, of the higher CAC.
Illustrative example: a brand whose figures move exactly as the 2025 averages did.
- August figures are the full-year 2025 averages: Meta CPM ₹210, CAC ₹700, conversion rate 1.9% and order value ₹1,000. Real August figures were probably lower, because full-year averages include the festive months.
- The brand won 605 new customers in August at ₹700 each, so it spent ₹4,23,500.
- In the festive month it raises spend by 80%, and every other figure moves by its 2025 average change.
- New customers' first orders grow by the same 18% as all orders. For the impressions row, all spend goes to Meta.
| Measure | August | Festive month |
|---|---|---|
| Ad spend | ₹4,23,500 | ₹7,62,300 |
| Meta CPM | ₹210 | ₹315 |
| Impressions bought | 20,16,667 | 24,20,000 |
| Store conversion rate | 1.9% | 2.3% |
| CAC | ₹700 | ₹847 |
| New customers | 605 | 900 |
| First-order value | ₹1,000 | ₹1,180 |
| First-order revenue from new customers | ₹6,05,000 | ₹10,62,000 |
- Festive spend: ₹4,23,500 × 1.8 = ₹7,62,300
- Impressions: ₹7,62,300 ÷ ₹315 × 1,000 = 24,20,000, only 20% more than in August
- New customers: ₹7,62,300 ÷ ₹847 = 900, 48.8% more than August's 605
- First-order value per rupee of CAC: ₹1,000 ÷ ₹700 = ₹1.43 in August, and ₹1,180 ÷ ₹847 = ₹1.39 in the festive month
The higher CAC costs ₹147 more per new customer, or ₹1,32,300 across 900 customers. Each first order now pays back a slightly smaller share of what it cost to win, whatever your margin.
Within the month, Meta CPM peaks at ₹378 in Diwali week (₹210 × 1.8). Two weeks after Diwali it's ₹204.75 (₹210 × 0.975), just below August.
When do festive ad costs rise and fall back?#
In 2025, Meta CPMs started rising 24.5 days before Diwali, peaked in Diwali week at 80% above August, and were 2.5% below August two weeks after Diwali.
Counted back from Diwali on 20 October 2025, the rise began around 25–26 September. Navratri had begun on 22 September. Flipkart's Big Billion Days and Amazon's Great Indian Festival had opened to everyone on 23 September, after a day of early access.
In 2026, Diwali is on Sunday 8 November, so 24.5 days before is 14–15 October. Navratri starts on 11 October, 28 days before Diwali, the same gap as in 2025. Flipkart opens on 9 October, 30 days before Diwali rather than 27. Plan for costs to rise from mid-October, possibly a few days earlier.
| Phase in 2026 | Dates | Meta CPM vs August, on the 2025 pattern |
|---|---|---|
| Navratri to Diwali | 11 October to 8 November | +50% on average |
| Rise begins | About 14–15 October | Starts climbing |
| Diwali week | Around Dhanteras (6 November) to Bhai Dooj (11 November) | +80% |
| Two weeks after Diwali | From about 22 November | −2.5% |
Your category may follow a different curve. Track your own CPM weekly from August onwards.
Which 2026 festive dates matter for ecommerce ads?#
Diwali falls on Sunday 8 November 2026, with Navratri from 11 October and Dussehra on 20 October. Hindu wedding dates resume from 21 November.
| Date (2026) | Occasion | Plan for |
|---|---|---|
| Sunday 11 October | Navratri begins | The 2025 cost figures start from Navratri |
| 18–20 October | Durga Puja: Maha Saptami, Mahashtami and Mahanavami | Last order dates for delivery before the puja |
| Tuesday 20 October | Dussehra | |
| Thursday 29 October | Karwa Chauth | A last order date for delivery before the day |
| Friday 6 November | Dhanteras | First day of the Diwali festivities |
| Sunday 8 November | Diwali | The most expensive week for impressions |
| Wednesday 11 November | Bhai Dooj | Last day of the Diwali festivities |
| Sunday 15 November | Chhath Puja | |
| Friday 20 November | Devutthana Ekadashi | |
| Saturday 21 November | First Hindu wedding date of the season | Four wedding dates in November and seven in December |
| Sunday 22 November | Two weeks after Diwali | Meta CPMs were below August at this point in 2025 |
| Tuesday 24 November | Guru Nanak's Birthday | |
| Friday 27 November | Black Friday, the day after US Thanksgiving | Nykaa's 2025 Pink Friday sale ran from 21 to 30 November |
| Friday 25 December | Christmas |
The central government's 2026 holiday list gives Dussehra, Diwali, the Durga Puja days, Karwa Chauth, Bhai Dooj, Chhath Puja, Guru Nanak's Birthday and Christmas. Drik Panchang gives Navratri, Dhanteras and Devutthana Ekadashi, and agrees on Karwa Chauth, Diwali and Bhai Dooj.
Drik Panchang lists no Hindu wedding dates in October 2026. For New Delhi it lists 21, 24, 25 and 26 November, then 2–6, 11 and 12 December.
Regional calendars can differ by a day. The central government list puts Govardhan Puja on 9 November, for example, while Drik Panchang gives 10 November. Check the dates your customers follow.
Which marketplace sales have announced 2026 dates?#
Only Flipkart had published 2026 festive sale dates by 19 September 2026. The Big Billion Days opens on 9 October, with early access for some members from 8 October. Flipkart's sale page also describes a curtain raiser, with selected products at sale prices five days before the main sale.
| Sale | 2026 status on 19 September 2026 | 2025 dates, for reference |
|---|---|---|
| Flipkart The Big Billion Days | Opens 9 October; early access from 8 October; end date not announced | Opened 23 September; early access for Plus and Black members from 22 September |
| Amazon Great Indian Festival | Announced as coming soon on 18 September; no dates yet | Opened 23 September; Prime early access from 22 September |
| Myntra Big Fashion Festival | No dates announced | Opened 20 September; Insiders early access from 8 pm on 19 September |
| Meesho Mega Blockbuster Sale | No dates announced | Opened 19 September |
| Nykaa Pink Friday | No dates announced | 21 to 30 November |
Ajio hadn't published 2026 festive sale dates either, and no official 2025 festive dates for it could be found. Deal and coupon sites list "expected" dates for all these sales. Treat them as guesses until the marketplace itself announces. In mid-September, news reports quoted possible Amazon dates from its Rufus shopping assistant, but Amazon hadn't confirmed them.
In 2025, Myntra announced its dates on 10 September, Meesho on 11 September and Flipkart on 15 September. Each came 8–10 days before its sale opened to everyone. Expect Amazon's, Myntra's and Meesho's 2026 dates at short notice, and check again in the last week of September.
How should you plan festive 2026 campaigns?#
Get festive ads approved before Flipkart's early access on 8 October. Spend on new customers from Navratri into early November, and restart after about 22 November, when costs fall back.
- By the end of September, record your August 2026 baseline: CPM, CPC, conversion rate, CAC on new customers, order value and new-customer share of orders.
- By 1 October, submit festive ads and product feeds. Meta's ad review is typically completed within 24 hours, though it can take longer. Google reviews most ads within one business day, and changes to an ad restart its review.
- If you're new to Shopping ads, allow for Merchant Center's first review, which can take 3–5 business days. Schedule sale prices with the sale price effective date attribute so they start and stop on time.
- In early October, before costs rise, run prospecting campaigns. Build audiences you can reach again later, such as site visitors, video viewers and WhatsApp opt-ins.
- From 11 October to 8 November, set budgets from the CAC you can afford. Expect it to run about 21% above August, so a ₹700 CAC becomes ₹847, with order values about 18% higher.
- On Google, let Smart Bidding handle the season, which Google says it already manages. Use a seasonality adjustment only for a short spike you expect, such as a sale's opening days.
- Before Diwali week, check whether orders can still arrive before Diwali and Bhai Dooj, and publish a last order date. If late orders can't arrive in time, cut new-customer spend that week, when impressions cost the most.
- Before each big sale day, tighten COD order confirmation. COD RTO averaged 30.8% in 2025 festive sales: on 1,000 COD orders at ₹850, ₹2,61,375 of orders came back.
- From about 22 November, restart new-customer campaigns. In 2025, CPMs were below August by then, and the first wedding date (21 November) and Black Friday (27 November) fall the same week.
FAQ#
Should you pause new-customer ads in Diwali week?#
No, unless Diwali-week orders can't reach customers before the festival. In Diwali week 2025, Meta impressions cost 80% more than in August, so impressions that cost ₹1,00,000 then cost ₹1,80,000. Where deliveries still arrive in time, keep campaigns running and judge them on new-customer CAC each day.
Which month should festive results be compared with?#
Use August 2026, because the 2025 festive averages compare Navratri-to-Diwali costs with August 2025. Record August's CPM, CPC, conversion rate, order value and new-customer CAC before the season starts. Using the same baseline month every year keeps the festive rise comparable from one season to the next.
How early should festive ads go in for review?#
Submit festive ads at least a week before they need to run. Meta typically completes ad review within 24 hours but says it can take longer. Google reviews most ads within one business day and restarts the review after edits. A first Merchant Center review for Shopping ads can take 3–5 business days.
Should Google seasonality adjustments cover the whole festive season?#
No. Google built seasonality adjustments for short events of 1–7 days and says they may not work as well beyond 14 days. Smart Bidding already manages seasonal events. Use an adjustment only when you expect a sharp, short jump in conversion rate, such as a sale's first days, and let bidding handle the four-week season.
Do marketplace sales push up D2C ad costs?#
Probably, although the 2025 averages can't separate marketplace demand from Navratri demand. Meta CPMs began rising around 25–26 September 2025, days after Navratri began and Flipkart and Amazon opened their sales. In 2026, Flipkart opens on 9 October and Navratri begins on 11 October, so expect higher costs from that week.
What should you track each week of the festive season?#
Track Meta CPM, CPC on Meta and Google Shopping, store conversion rate, order value, new-customer CAC and the new-customer share of orders, each against August. Add COD RTO by week. In 2025 festive sales it averaged 30.8%, which on 1,000 COD orders at ₹850 means ₹2,61,375 of orders returned.
Shreya Singh
Paid Media Analyst, ProfitBox360Shreya writes about Meta and Google advertising for ecommerce brands. Her articles cover campaign setup, creative testing and performance measurement, connecting advertising decisions to orders, acquisition costs and revenue.
How this research is checked, and corrected